The Road To Electric Vehicles: A Primer To Decode The Ecosystem

By Arpit Agarwal, Venkatesh Modi

We have been closely following the EV space for years, especially since it gathered steam four years ago. Over time, we garnered enough takeaways to compile into a single account – the only resource you need to understand the fascinating Electric Vehicles ecosystem in India. 

EV sales have grown multifold in less than a decade , and the opportunity it presents to both entrepreneurs and investors is immense. Our estimates indicate that the EV OEM market can be worth $31.6B by 2030 in just 3 categories – EV scooters, 3W and cars. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that EV has irrevocably changed the automobile industry in the same way that Jio changed internet consumption patterns in the country.

This primer consists of five parts. We begin with a quick recce of the EV space and run you through the fundamentals. In this introduction, we have also attempted to create scenarios for a future using these basics. The introduction is followed by four different sections. Part 1 deals more specifically with the OEM business. Part 2 deals with energy business, Part 3 is about financing, and Part 4 is about broader EV Mobility business. The primer is designed in a way that the reader can pick up a singular part from the report in case she is interested in that specific segment. For example, an investor curious about the charging business can skip to part three after perusing the introduction. 

We have made reasonable assumptions while coming up with the estimates, particularly around market sizes and TCO (total cost of ownership) calculations. In several cases, we took learnings from our portfolio companies to create scenarios establishing a concept. Here’s one instance: in this report, we spoke about the economics of Battery Swapping. Based on our research and conversations over the years, we have also taken the liberty to make educated predictions. For example, we believe there is the possibility of the emergence of an ODM business in the two/three wheeler market in India. 

We believe each of these four facets present sizable opportunities within them, and have the potential to be independent verticals that can create massive companies in the next decade. 

A major hiccup in this complex and dynamic ecosystem is that one needs to have a grip over each constituent to be able to think of achievable milestones. Because of this cold start problem, investors are unable to fathom what scaled companies are capable of, and the industry trendsetters are denied capital for faster growth. Through this primer, we aim to remedy this issue by building a framework that allows entrepreneurs, investors, and corporates to navigate this tricky space better. 

While we believe we have considered all possible scenarios, the possibility of errors and blindspots is never zero. We are open to feedback and suggestions that help us correct and streamline the takeaways in this report. We welcome all critique at aa+ev@blume.vc. 

Here’s the entire report – https://bit.ly/BlumeEVprimer